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For the past two years, the AI industry has been operating on a single, seductive promise: that if we just keep scaling our current models, we'll eventually arrive at AGI. A wave of new research, brilliantly summarized in a recent video analysis, has finally provided the mathematical proof that this promise is a lie.

 


This isn't just another opinion; it's a brutal, two-pronged assault on the very foundations of the current AI paradigm:


1. The Wall of Physics:


The first paper reveals a terrifying reality about the economics of reliability. To reduce the error rate of today's LLMs by even a few orders of magnitude—to make them truly trustworthy for enterprise use—would require 10^20 times more computing power. This isn't just a challenge; it's a physical impossibility. We have hit a hard wall where the cost of squeezing out the last few percentage points of reliability is computationally insane. The era of brute-force scaling is over.


2. The Wall of Reason:


The second paper is even more damning. It proves that "Chain-of-Thought," the supposed evidence of emergent reasoning in LLMs, is a "brittle mirage". The models aren't reasoning; they are performing a sophisticated pattern-match against their training data. The moment a problem deviates even slightly from that data, the "reasoning" collapses entirely. This confirms what skeptics have been saying all along: we have built a world-class "statistical parrot," not a thinking machine.

This is the end of the "Blueprint Battle." The LLM-only blueprint has failed. The path forward is not to build a bigger parrot, but to invest in the hard, foundational research for a new architecture. The future belongs to "world models," like those being pursued by Yann LeCun and others—systems that learn from interacting with a real or virtual world, not just from a library of text.

The "disappointing" GPT-5 launch wasn't a stumble; it was the first, visible tremor of this entire architectural paradigm hitting a dead end. The hype is over. Now the real, foundational work of inventing the next paradigm begins.


Pubblicato il 22 agosto 2025

Stark Burns

Stark Burns / Data analytics evangelist📣 ★ Helping organizations make smarter🔬, faster⚡, and more efficient🚀 decisions.+++

stark.burns@gmail.com